Walter Russel Mead, The Return of Geopolitics: The Revenge of the Revisionist?Powers, Foreign Affairs, Vol. 93, No. 3 (MAY/JUNE 2014), pp. 69-74, 75-79,Council of Foreign Relations.
2018 has been an interesting year for international diplomacy; the United States of America, (U.S.A) rejected the ideology of globalism; the mercurial role of the U.S. in climate change negotiations; the U.S. response to the death of a Saudi journalist – Jamal Khashoggi; Russia, Iran, Turkey seeking a permanent political solution to the Syrian crises; the European Union (EU) pledging to preserve the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran; the wave of populism in the EU; the China – US trade wars; China’s economic diplomacy in Africa; and the new US-Africa Strategy. International relations is facing a shift in a New World Order!
The article by Walter Mead focused on world order and global politics submitting that the U.S. and the EU are alarmed by recent global developments. The authors perspective is that traditional affairs of trade liberalization, nuclear nonproliferation, human rights, the rule of law and climate change should be at the forefront of international diplomacy rather than the perennial geopolitical questions of territory and military power. That traditional foes; China, Iran, and Russia are keen to overturn the geopolitical settlement that followed the Cold War with the likely consequence that the balance of power has already been shaken.
In response to this article, it would no doubt be impossible not to appreciate a number of excellent points raised and also some deficiencies. I will argue that the interaction and cooperation between states are centered on the role of international relations in pursuit of national interests. Nichollo Machiavelli (1469-1527) layed the foundation for political realism, the doctrine of which denied space for any morality in politics and holding the view that: in the pursuit of power all means are justified to achieve certain political ends. I will therefore demonstrate how the role of recent international political events have ensured that international order is not under threat but that the geopolitics dynamics have reconstituted a new balance of power centered on the competitive pursuit of national interests.
The author asserts that the U.S. and the EU would rather focus on global governance. Recent events suggest otherwise, that is; the U.S. pulling out of the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO); withdrawal from the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change mitigation; rejecting The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action 2015 on Iran; the attack on the International Criminal Court; and the remarks made by President Trump to the 73rd Session of the United Nations General Assembly:
“We reject the ideology of globalism and we embrace the doctrine of patriotism” …
“around the world responsible nations must defend against threats to sovereignty not just from global governance” …
“America will always choose independence and cooperation over global governance, control, and domination”…
The President was in effect repositioning the U.S. to address the growing challenge to its position as the most powerful nation on earth in accordance with its ‘American First’ policy, by tactically shifting its foreign policy. In Europe the French President Emmanuel Macron’s climate change gas tax hike has led to chaos by the gilets jaunes as demands for lower taxes and better public services continue to remain fundamentally unresolved. In Belgium the signing of the United Nations (UN) migration compact aimed at fostering co-operation on migration has brought down the coalition government led by Prime Minister Charles Michel.
Across the channel, in the United Kingdom (UK), the discontent between the public and politicians over Britain exiting the EU (Brexit) has created a mistrust of politicians on the process. The UK’s former ambassador to the European Union Sir Ivan Rogers warned that “fantasies and delusions on all sides” risk plunging the UK into a democratic crisis and predicted the public would not forgive politicians[1].
The author (Mead, 2014, p.77) was therefore correct in that, this current deterioration in Europe, in addressing its domestic interests against organized global governance has turned the EU’s attention on itself at a time when its global leadership is so much needed. Indeed, in a speech in 2016 the EU High Representative / Vice President Federica Mogherini reminds that “Neither European Union nor the United States – could deal with our common challenges alone” …as part of the Core of the Strategy … “we need each other, Europe and the United States and all global and regional powers to play their role”[2].
The fact is, the Cold War was a game changer in the global geopolitics and according Professor Kishore Mahbubani ‘Has the West Lost it?’[3], liberal democracy had prevailed and the Soviet Union were defeated. He noticed that three strategic mistakes were made by the ‘West’ following the political scientist Francis Fukuyama’s “The End of History” statement[4].
Professor Kishore Mahbubani states that the ‘West’went to sleep and on auto-pilot, at the very moment the rest of the World in particular China and India were waking up. The second mistake; was in 2001 and China’s admission to WTO which had a phenomenal impact on the global economy and third; the exponential growth in gross domestic product (GDP) purchasing power parity (PPP) by China which the ‘West’ did not see coming or respond to. Professor Mahbubani highlights that minimalism; multilaterism and the principles of machiavellism (often misunderstood by the West) were necessary to redeem these past mistakes that is; reducing the need to intervene into the affairs of every society; appreciating that the world is seeing more and more competent governments capable of managing their own affairs; and encouraging the need to avoid unilateral approach to problem solving.
As an illustration, in a recent speech commemorating the 40th anniversary of China’s “reform and opening up” the Chinese President Xi Jinping alluded to this; that “China will not develop at the expense of other nations”; that “China will never seek global hegemony”; that China would work towards the greater global good as a “promoter of world peace”, a “defender of international order” and holding “a leading role in dealing with climate change”[5].
When put into context with the ongoing China – US trade wars, it is a fair reflection that we are witnessing old-fashioned power plays between China and the US in international affairs. An example is the immediate response to the arrest of a top executive of Huawei, the Chinese Telecoms group where President Trump, said he was willing to intervene – if it helped secure “the largest trade deal ever made” between the two countries[6].
The distraction brought on by this episode resonates with the post-Cold War settlement in Asia as stated by the author. However, the US-China trade war could complicate the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) negotiations[7]. Professor Petri & Plummer (2018) argue that a ‘poison pill’ clause introduced by the United States in the United States – Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) precludes members of this and other potential US agreements from also signing accords with ‘non-market economies’ (read China)[8].
That said, the uncontested dominance of the United States in Asia through a series of security relationships with allies must now be looked at within the context of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN[9]) organization including the now ASEAN Plus Three (APT) cooperation incorporating, China, Japan and Republic of Korea[10].
While the assertion that a Eurasian bloc is not achievable due to the financial weakness of Russia, the recent developments in the region suggest otherwise with the recent membership of India and Pakistan to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO)[11] seen as a game changer in the dynamics of Eurasian politics[12]. It therefore offers a potential platform to deepen East Asia cooperation as is the case for the strategic alliance between China, Russia and India within the context of the BRICS association. The One Belt One Road initiative is an important development strategy for China involving development and investments in most countries across the Asian region which China is keen to embed close links [13].
In the Middle East the political realities no longer reflect the Dominance of Sunni powers that were once allied to the United States. Turkey accused the US of instigating the July 2016 coup attempt and harboring the person most Turkish officials believe was its mastermind, the Pennsylvania resident Fethullah Gulen[14]. In Syria the U.S. lost control of the crisis to Iran, Russia and Turkey, currently the custodians of the Syrian peace process[15]. Saudi Arabia’s capacity to lead the geopolitics of the Middle East are far more complicated after the global response to the death of its citizen journalist Jamal Khashoggi; the war in Yemen; the Qatar economic blockade[16] and the U.S. double speak on Iran and Saudi Arabia.
Africa is witnessing a growing list of foreign permanent military presence from powerful global players that is; the UK, US, France, Germany, Russia, China and India[17]. This is an important geopolitical development worth ending on.
As part of its Africa economic diplomacy, China recently pledged new infrastructure investments of USD60bn (£46BN) at the 2018 FOCAC summit held in Beijing[18]. These developments keep the US at the peripheries (politically and economically) in Africa. The recently launched ‘New Africa Strategy’[19] is designed to respond to China and Russia, which the Trump administration consider as expanding financial and political influence across Africa to gain a competitive advantage over the U.S.
And so what do the African’s make of these developing power plays: Rwanda’s President Paul Kagame, the current African Union Chairman has been consistent with his views; First in China… “Africa is not a zero-sum game. Our growing ties with China do not come at anyone’s expense”… “China has proven to be a win-win partner and a sincere friend”[20]. Then in New York “ “…the main lines of US policy towards Africa have hardly changed since the end of the Cold War”[21]. Finally, Berlin…“success is possible” but “pouring new wine into old bottles is not a winning formula. We have to challenge ourselves to go beyond the usual routines”[22]
After 40 years, China’s system of government has shown that economic growth is possible without ‘Western’ political reforms, Africa with its vast strategic natural resources[23] in global demand is watching keenly and so are the rest; could Africa once again be the next frontier for old –fashioned power plays (Mead, 2014, p.69)?
A famous son of Africa once said “We face neither East nor West: we face forward” (Kwame Nkrumah, 1963).
REFERENCES
[1] https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/dec/13/brexit-delusions-risk-putting-uk-into-crisis-warns-ivan-rogers
[2] Speech by the High Representative / Vice-President Federica Mogherini at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Washington DC, 22/07/2016
[3] https://youtu.be/lcAdFKsdweU Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, [Lecture] Has the West Lost it? by Prof Kishore Mahbubani
[4] https://www.embl.de/aboutus/science_society/discussion/discussion_2006/ref1-22june06.pdf Fukuyama, 1989, The End of History
[5] https://youtu.be/MILBtNHX4rQ Xi Jinping speaks on 40th anniversary of China’s reform, 18 Dec 2018
[6] Financial Times, Donald Trump makes Huawei CEO Meng Wanzhou a bargaining chip
[7] A proposed free trade agreement between member states of the ASEAN plus six states (Australia, China, India, Japan, South Korea and New Zealand)
[8] http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2018/11/06/rcep-evidence-of-asian-leadership-on-trade/ by Peter Petri is the Carl J Shapiro Professor of International Finance in the International Business School, Brandeis University and Michael Plummer is a Director of SAIS Europe and the Eni Professor of International Economics in the School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopskins Universit).
[9] ASEAN Secretariat Information Paper, July 2018
[10] https://asean.org/asean/external-relations/asean-3/#8bcf53d482484563f
[11] Focused on Eurasian political, economic, and security alliance has witnessed a game changer when in India and Pakistan
[12] In addition to Afghanistan and Iran being observer states members; Turkey and the ASEAN, The Commonwealth of Independent States as dialogue partners (CIS a regional intergovernmental organization of 10 post Soviet republics in Eurasia formed following the dissolution of the Soviet Union)
[13] http://english.gov.cn/beltAndRoad/
[14] https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/03/19/the-u-s-alliance-with-turkey-is-worth-preserving/
[15] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/18/russia-turkey-and-iran-reach-agreement-on-syria-committee
[16] https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/06/04/qatar-won-the-saudi-blockade/
[17] https://issafrica.org/iss-today/au-summit-30-should-africa-worry-about-a-growing-foreign-military-presence https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2018/sep/11/russias-scramble-for-influence-in-africa-catches-western-officials-off-guard
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/28/military-china-and-india-compete-over-bases-around-indian-ocean.html
https://www.dw.com/en/germany-to-expand-global-military-missions/a-42858081
[18] https://www.brookings.edu/blog/africa-in-focus/2018/09/05/chinas-2018-financial-commitments-to-africa-adjustment-and-recalibration/
[19] https://www.heritage.org/event/webcast-only-the-trump-administrations-new-africa-strategy
[20] http://paulkagame.com/?p=13342 Address By President Paul Kagame Summit Of The Forum On China – Africa Cooperation, Beijing, 3 September 2018
[21] http://paulkagame.com/?p=13614 Remarks by President Paul Kagame, Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), New York, 27 September 2018
[22] http://paulkagame.com/?p=13755 Address by President Paul Kagame at G20 Investment, Berlin, 30 Oct 2018
[23] https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/interactive/2016/10/mapping-africa-natural-resources-161020075811145.html
Regional Integration & International Trade 
Great insight
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